UNCLASSIFIED // FOUO

BLDC Motor Supply ChainRisk Analysis Dashboard

14
Identified Risks
81
Max Risk Score
2
Immediate Action
10
Countries Assessed
Risk Likelihood × Impact Matrix
Bubble size = Risk Score · Color = Risk Category · 14 identified supply chain risks
⚠ Key Finding
R5 (Heavy REE Single-Source, Score: 81) and R1 (China REE Export Ban, Score: 70) occupy the extreme upper-right quadrant, indicating simultaneous high likelihood and catastrophic impact. These two risks are interconnected — both stem from >90% Chinese dominance in rare earth refining and >95% control of heavy REEs (Dy/Tb). Immediate mitigation via strategic stockpiling and MP Materials/Lynas USA investment is imperative.
Cumulative Risk Scores by Supply Chain Tier
Stacked by risk category · Higher bars indicate greater aggregate risk exposure at that tier
Key Finding
Tier 2 (Components) carries the highest aggregate risk score, driven primarily by geopolitical and single-source risks in NdFeB magnets and rare earth feedstock. Tier 3 (Raw Materials) ranks second due to the extreme concentration of heavy REE supply in China (>95%). Tier 1 motor OEMs face significant single-source risk (Maxon/FAULHABER European dependency) and potential export control exposure.
Supply Concentration by Country — Vulnerability Assessment
Area = estimated share of defense-relevant BLDC supply · Color intensity = vulnerability rating (1–10)
⚠ Critical Concentration
China dominates with ~85% of NdFeB magnet manufacturing, >90% REE refining, and >95% heavy REE supply — an existential single-point-of-failure. Taiwan (vulnerability: 8/10) fabricates 40–60% of motor-relevant sensor and MCU wafers via TSMC — a high-risk node in any Indo-Pacific contingency. Only ~2% of sintered NdFeB magnet production is currently US-based. The MP Materials Fort Worth plant (expected 2025–2026) is critical to closing this gap.